A new citywide poll has revealed growing anxiety among New Yorkers as the mayoral race heads into its final stretch. According to the survey, more than one in four residents say they would consider leaving New York City if Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a progressive candidate known for his left-wing policies, wins the upcoming election.
The poll — conducted by Victory Insights — paints a striking picture of division and uncertainty among voters in the nation’s largest city.
Concerns Over Mamdani’s Platform
When asked whether they would consider relocating if Mamdani were elected, 26.5 percent of respondents said yes. Another 68.4 percent said they would stay regardless of the outcome, while 5.2 percent said they were unsure.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, has campaigned on an ambitious platform centered around affordable housing, expanded social programs, and increased taxes on high-income residents. His supporters see him as a bold reformer who can reshape New York’s future. His critics, however, describe his ideas as too radical for the city’s fragile economy, still recovering from pandemic-era disruptions and rising crime rates.
According to the Victory Insights report, 39 percent of respondents said they believe Mamdani poses “a threat to the future of the city.” That figure includes roughly one-third of Democratic voters, showing that concern about his potential leadership extends beyond party lines.
Poll Shows Divided Voters — and Declining Faith in Leadership
The same survey measured overall public opinion toward Mamdani, giving him an average approval rating of 2.99 out of 5 — slightly below average but still higher than that of several other prominent figures. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo received a 2.40, while Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa scored 2.72.
Victory Insights noted that while Mamdani’s support base is passionate, many residents feel exhausted by the city’s ongoing struggles with rising rent, street crime, and public safety concerns.
“New York City seems to be nearing an inflection point, one that could reshape the city for years to come,” the firm wrote in its analysis. “While Mamdani appears likely to win, the depth of opposition to his agenda among voters suggests a potential outflow of residents if his administration pursues sweeping ideological changes.”
The poll surveyed 500 likely voters across all five boroughs between October 22 and October 24. While the margin of error was not disclosed, analysts say the results reflect growing polarization among New Yorkers who feel alienated by the city’s direction.
A Progressive Rising Star
Zohran Mamdani, who first gained prominence for his activism on housing justice and immigrant rights, has been a fixture in New York politics since his election to the State Assembly in 2020. The son of Ugandan-Indian immigrants, Mamdani has built his brand around grassroots mobilization and progressive reform, frequently citing figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as inspirations.
If elected, Mamdani would become New York City’s first socialist mayor in modern history — a milestone that excites his supporters but unsettles others wary of economic disruption.
His proposals include universal rent stabilization, fare-free public transit, and the creation of a citywide public bank to fund local infrastructure and social projects. Critics, including moderate Democrats and business leaders, argue that these ideas could accelerate an ongoing exodus of middle-class families and investors.
“The policies sound good on paper, but they risk pushing the city’s financial base even further away,” said Marc Delgado, an urban economist at Columbia University. “If Mamdani wins, he’ll face enormous pressure to prove that progressive governance can work in a city this large and complex.”
“A Threat to the Future of the City”
The phrase “threat to the future of the city,” used by nearly four in ten poll respondents, has become a key talking point in the race’s final weeks.
Some New Yorkers fear that Mamdani’s administration could worsen existing challenges — including rising commercial vacancies, population decline, and high taxes that already rank among the nation’s steepest.
“I’ve lived here for 45 years,” said Ellen Montgomery, a small business owner in Brooklyn. “I’m not against progress, but the idea of more taxes and more regulations terrifies me. If things get worse, I might finally leave.”
Others argue that the backlash against Mamdani reflects fear of change, rather than legitimate economic concerns.
“People said the same thing when Fiorello LaGuardia ran in the 1930s,” said activist and Mamdani supporter José Peña. “New York has always evolved through bold leadership. He’s not a threat — he’s a wake-up call.”
Cuomo and Sliwa Trail Behind
Despite his controversies, Mamdani’s path to City Hall appears strong. Victory Insights noted that “it would come as a major surprise if anyone other than Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City.”
His two primary challengers — Andrew Cuomo, the former governor seeking a political comeback, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican Guardian Angels founder — have struggled to gain traction among the city’s diverse electorate.
Cuomo’s favorability remains low after his 2021 resignation amid misconduct allegations, while Sliwa’s law-and-order message has found limited appeal in deep-blue New York.
Still, both opponents have gained attention for warning that a Mamdani victory could trigger a new wave of outmigration — similar to the population declines that followed the city’s fiscal crises in the 1970s and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“If you think taxes and red tape are bad now, just wait,” Sliwa said in a recent debate. “This city will empty out faster than it did during lockdown.”
Trump Reportedly Watching the Race Closely
Interestingly, even former President Donald Trump has reportedly weighed in privately on the race. According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior White House source said Trump and his advisers view Mamdani’s lead as “virtually insurmountable,” predicting that his election is all but guaranteed.
The report noted that Trump’s team has been analyzing the New York race as part of a broader look at urban political trends ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“They see Mamdani as a symbol of where Democratic politics in major cities are heading — further left, more activist-driven, and less business-friendly,” one political analyst said. “That’s both an opportunity and a warning sign for conservatives nationwide.”
Election Day Nears
Early voting begins Saturday, with Election Day set for November 4, now less than two weeks away.
City officials are preparing for high turnout, especially in Queens and Brooklyn, where Mamdani’s grassroots organization has mobilized thousands of first-time voters. His campaign has leaned heavily on digital outreach and community events, particularly in immigrant and working-class neighborhoods.
In a recent rally, Mamdani addressed criticism of his policies directly:
“They say my ideas will drive people away,” he told the crowd. “But what’s driving people out now is inequality, unaffordable rent, and corruption. I’m not the reason people are leaving — I’m the reason they might finally stay.”
A City at a Crossroads
As New York braces for a potentially historic election, the debate over Mamdani’s candidacy has evolved into a larger reflection of the city’s identity — torn between its progressive ambitions and its economic realities.
Whether the fears expressed in the poll materialize remains to be seen. But for now, one thing is clear: the question of who leads New York next could shape not only its future — but also who chooses to call it home.