Political analyst Mark Halperin said Friday that if Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez decides to challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer in the 2028 New York Senate primary, he believes Schumer would likely have to step aside.
According to NBC News, both public and behind-the-scenes pressure has been mounting from Democrats encouraging Ocasio-Cortez to run if Schumer seeks reelection. Speaking on The Morning Meeting, Halperin noted that Ocasio-Cortez would have potent lines of attack that could prove tough for Schumer to deflect, the Daily Caller reported.
“If she ran against him, I know exactly what she would say to try to beat him. It’s very hard for me to imagine how Schumer could come back because the way to try to beat her would be to go negative on her — ‘she’s inexperienced, she’s too left-wing.’ It seems to me that all that would backfire,” Halperin said. “And so I think if she runs against him, he has to quit the race because I don’t think he can defend himself against her.”
Halperin also pointed to a newly released poll showing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading Sen. Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical Democratic primary, though he cautioned, “it’s not necessarily the greatest poll in the world.”
The poll, conducted by Data for Progress and published Friday, showed Ocasio-Cortez with a commanding lead over Schumer, 55% to 36%.
Schumer, currently the Senate minority leader, has faced growing criticism from within his own party following his support for a GOP-backed funding bill aimed at avoiding a government shutdown.
Mark Penn, a former pollster for and adviser to former President Bill Clinton, warned in March that Ocasio-Cortez’s challenge to Schumer could severely damage their party.
“I don’t think she’s going to challenge Schumer, but if she does, I mean, already the Democratic ratings are down to 29%. I’ve never seen anything like it,” Penn said. “That means the left base is with the Democratic Party and the moderates are all leaving the party.
“So AOC taking off Schumer, wow, that could finish this party off. This could put it into the wilderness the way the Labour Party was for a decade,” he added.
Polling from CNN/SSRS and NBC News published in March found Democratic Party popularity at 29% and 27%, respectively — record lows for the party in the modern era.
Schumer may eventually resign from his leadership role voluntarily rather than being forced out by his fellow Democrats, according to a seasoned political analyst.
Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in South Carolina, told Newsweek last month that Schumer might be planning a “graceful exit” before his term concludes in January 2029, though he is unlikely to be forcibly “tossed out” as Senate leader.
Schumer has faced pressure to step down after he, along with eight Senate Democrats and independent Senator Angus King of Maine—who caucuses with the party—voted on March 14 to support a stopgap spending bill backed by President Donald Trump and Republicans.
Ocasio-Cortez, nearly 40 years younger than Schumer, is frequently seen as a representative of a new generation of left-wing Democrats who should steer the party forward after the significant losses in the 2024 elections.
Vinson noted that the 74-year-old Schumer is likely aware of the mounting demand for new leadership within the party, and that calls for his resignation may intensify. The outcome of the 2026 midterms may see him further “encouraged and challenged” him to step down, depending on the results.
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said, “It’s important that people know when it’s time to go,” when asked about Schumer at a town hall in the town of Golden on March 17.
Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland stated on March 16 that it “may be time” for new Senate leadership after Schumer supported a continuing resolution that House Democrats nearly unanimously rejected.