Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may be the Senate’s top Democrat, but a new poll indicates his hold on power is rapidly weakening. According to a survey by Data for Progress, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leads Schumer by a staggering 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary. Although Schumer still serves as Majority Leader, his standing with the party’s base appears to be in steep decline.
Between March 26 and 31, a survey of 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York asked who they would support in a head-to-head matchup between Chuck Schumer and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The results were striking: 55% backed Ocasio-Cortez, while only 36% supported Schumer. The numbers weren’t an anomaly either—Schumer registered the highest disapproval rating of any Democratic figure tested in the poll. In contrast, Ocasio-Cortez ranked among the most popular, trailing only Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in favorability.
The downturn in support comes at a politically precarious time for Schumer. His recent decision to back a spending bill negotiated with President Trump—and supported by Senate Republicans—has sparked backlash from progressives who argue that Democrats must take a stronger stand against the president’s growing political momentum. An overwhelming 84% of respondents said they believe Democrats in Washington aren’t doing enough to push back against Trump and the MAGA movement. It’s more than a warning shot—it’s a clear alarm bell for the party’s establishment wing.
Ocasio-Cortez’s support spans nearly every major demographic group. She leads by a massive 50 points among voters under 45, holds an 8-point advantage among those 45 and older, and outpaces Schumer among white, Black, and Latino voters. She also outperforms him across gender and education lines, with Schumer’s only advantage coming from self-identified moderates. Respondents in the poll were shown biographical summaries of both candidates before making their choice.
Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability jumped from +59 to +69 after voters were presented with details about her background, her 2018 primary upset, and her policy positions. Schumer also saw a boost—from +26 to +47—but the increase wasn’t enough to shift the head-to-head matchup in his favor.