For nearly three decades, New Jersey has remained a Democratic stronghold. But political tides appear to be shifting, with growing signs of discontent emerging across the Garden State.
Beneath its image as a suburban liberal enclave, working-class voters are increasingly expressing frustration with what they view as failed Democratic policies that have harmed their livelihoods and eroded their fundamental rights.
A new Emerson poll shows President Donald Trump with a 47 percent approval rating in New Jersey—a state he lost by nearly six points in the 2024 election. In contrast, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy trails Trump in approval, sitting at just 40 percent.
According to new analysis from Quantus Insights’ Jason Corley, “Trump’s rise in New Jersey is more than a polling quirk—it is a symptom of the deeper disillusionment of a forgotten electorate. Compared to his dismal 38% approval in 2020, Trump has gained nearly 18 net points in five years. The self-anointed progressives who run Trenton and dominate Newark, Camden, and Paterson may have the numbers on paper, but they are losing the pulse of the people.”
In the last election, former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly carried New Jersey, winning by just 5.91 percent—a sharp 10-point drop from Joe Biden’s margin in the 2020 race. Donald Trump also flipped several counties long considered Democratic strongholds, including Gloucester, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland, and Morris.
“Hispanic and working-class voters in places like Perth Amboy and Elizabeth didn’t switch parties out of affection for Trump. They walked away from a Democratic Party that speaks more about gender theory than grocery bills. The left’s cultural priorities have become alien to many of the very voters they once relied on. The right, meanwhile, speaks bluntly—about inflation, crime, immigration, and identity. And blunt speech, like hard truth, resonates,” Corley continued.
“The voter rolls tell the same story. Since 2020, Republicans have added roughly 152,000 voters in New Jersey—a 9.8% increase. Democrats grew more slowly, up 129,000, or 5.2%. Unaffiliated voter registration declined slightly, but independents still make up over a third of the electorate. And in a state with semi-closed primaries and a vanishing county line system, these independents may finally become the kingmakers,” the pollster added.
Corley suggested the shift is being driven by frustration over high taxes, rising housing costs, and burdensome regulations. The report notes that New Jersey has long ranked among the most expensive states in the country to live in.
Working-class families are increasingly struggling under the burden of rising costs. The article also notes that many of these individuals feel let down by what they see as empty promises from Democratic leaders, fueling growing disillusionment that could ultimately lead to party disaffiliation and defections.