The Republican Party, led by President Donald Trump, appears to have an early advantage against Democrats in not only keeping but expanding its majority in the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
In its initial ratings for the 2026 midterms, the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage in the upper chamber.
The report showed that two seats currently held by Democrats, Georgia and Michigan, are tossups, though at least one of them — in the Peach State — is leaning Republican under the right candidate.
In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff will likely have to defend against popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who currently holds a polling advantage. Newsweek reported that a poll from the WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth showed that the governor has a 6-point edge over the Senate incumbent.
In Michigan, Democrat Sen. Gary Peters said that he would not seek reelection, which presents an opportunity for Republicans to capture his seat in a state that Trump carried last November.
Democrats’ best chances to capture seats are in Maine and North Carolina, where Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Thom Tillis represent them, respectively.
They may also have a shot in Ohio for the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance after Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the Cook report said.
But even if Democrats won all three contests, they would still have to flip a seat that the Cook Report deems “solidly Republican” while achieving victory in every state they are defending.
Republican South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, meanwhile, has developed a plan to increase his party’s advantage in the Senate from 53 to 55 seats, targeting the defense of current Republican seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio while also looking to grab Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia.
Minnesota could also be up for grabs now as well after Democrat Sen. Tina Smith announced that she would not be seeking reelection. Republicans could face a familiar foe for that seat in Gov. Tim Walz, who was former Vice President Kamala Harris’ choice to be her vice president during her doomed 2024 presidential campaign.
Some Democrats are already campaigning for her job, while other familiar names, like Walz, are considering it.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already announced her candidacy on Instagram where she said, “I love Minnesota and my intention is to run for United States Senate and continue to serve the people of this state. I’ll make a formal announcement later this month. In the meantime, I’m talking with community and my family and friends. I will have more to say soon.”
Rep. Ilhan Omar has not ruled out her own bid as a spokesperson for the “Squad” member said, “Congresswoman Omar will be talking with Minnesotans about the future of the Senate seat and DFL party in Minnesota,” Politico reported.
Smith announced her retirement in a video this week. In it, she said, “After 20 years of hard and rewarding work in the public sector, I’m ready to spend more time with my family.”
Smith spoke to reporters on Capitol Hill on Thursday, and she did not show any preference as to who might replace her in the growing field of Democrat candidates.
“Absolutely not — this is a moment for the deep bench of leadership in Minnesota, lots of great talent. And you know that’s for Minnesotans and those leaders to figure out,” the senator said.
She said that her decision not to seek reelection in 2026 was “purely personal” and “had nothing to do with the politics of the moment.”
“You know, this was a purely personal decision. I really was weighing like what I want to do for the next 10 years of my life and how I want to spend my time. And with that frame, it was — it had nothing to do with the politics of the moment. And so in that sense, once I was really clear on … how I wanted to approach the next 10 years, it wasn’t a hard decision,” she said.