The Republican Party currently controls both chambers of Congress, but the GOP is in danger of losing control of the House, according to an analysis published on Monday by The Hill.
The analysis focuses on a state Supreme Court race in the battleground state of Wisconsin — which President Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2024 — where voters head to the polls April 1 to decide whether the court will remain a 4-3 liberal majority or if conservative justices will retake their majority.
If the Democrat-favored candidate wins, that could be disastrous for the GOP-controlled House.
“The Republicans are currently clinging to a razor-thin 218-215 House majority. A liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court could strike down the state’s congressional map, costing Republicans two seats and potentially flipping control of the House,” The Hill’s analysis noted.
Republicans already fumbled this opportunity once in 2023 when their conservative Supreme Court candidate was outspent more than five-to-one and suffered an 11-point defeat. While Democrats poured in massive amounts of money from across the country, most national Republicans failed to mobilize, the analysis said.
“Unless Republicans wake up, they are destined to repeat history just two short years later,” it added.
The analysis goes on to note:
Although Wisconsin’s judicial elections are technically non-partisan, they function as fiercely partisan contests, with candidates staking out clear positions on key issues such as crime, abortion, voter ID and taxation.
This year’s Democratic-backed candidate, Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge in deep-blue Dane County (home to Madison), is already making her strategy clear: hammer her conservative opponent, former Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, on abortion while fundraising on the promise that a win would help Democrats redraw the state’s congressional districts.
She has quickly gone on the offensive, launching attacks and sending out fundraising emails explicitly stating that, if victorious, she will work to secure two additional U.S. House seats for Democrats, said the analysis.
National Republicans and donors must take this race seriously, the analysis encourages, because the race marks the first major election since President Trump’s November victory, and the media are watching closely, ready to capitalize on any Republican misstep.
“If the Wisconsin Supreme Court retains its current liberal majority, expect the left-wing headline writers to have a field day: ‘Wisconsin Rejects MAGA!’ ‘Republicans Fumble, Again!’ ‘Trump’s Grip on Wisconsin Slips!’ The liberal media have been searching for a shred of good news, and Republicans losing this election would fit the bill,” noted the analysis.
A recent survey from OnMessage Inc. confirms that this race is highly competitive. The statewide poll of likely voters for the April general election shows conservative-aligned Schimel and liberal-aligned Crawford locked in a dead heat at 38 percent each.
Republicans have a clear path to victory, but if they allow themselves to be massively outspent as they were in 2023, they risk another defeat, the analysis said.
It adds: “If resources come into the state, they must be used to inform the 1.7 million Trump voters from November 2024 that there is an election on April Fools Day, and it is no joke. Right now, though, the money isn’t there, because Republican donors don’t seem to care. The only major-dollar Republican activist who has even noticed this race is ever forward-looking Elon Musk, who is reportedly spending money through his super PAC to help the conservative candidate. It is a start, but other Republican donors from all over the country need to ‘ride to the sound of the guns’ and engage to match the Democrats’ onslaught that’s already begun.”
Beyond the national stakes for Trump and the Republican Party, Crawford’s judicial record raises serious concerns. As a circuit court judge, she repeatedly granted early release to violent criminals, including individuals convicted of shootings, domestic abuse, and even child rape, said the analysis.
Crawford has also openly advocated for eliminating Voter ID requirements and supports tax increases. Electing her to Wisconsin’s Supreme Court would pose a direct threat to Republican control of Congress, public safety in Wisconsin, and overall judicial sanity, it added.