The Democratic Party’s worst-case scenario is beginning to unfold, as a wave of vulnerable House Democrats are forgoing re-election bids to pursue higher office—further complicating the electoral map for the Democratic National Committee and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) in their bid to reclaim the U.S. House next November.
On Thursday, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) announced he will run for Senate instead of seeking another term in the House. His decision comes on the heels of another blow to Democrats: Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) revealed she will not seek re-election. While New Hampshire has leaned Democratic in recent presidential contests, the open Senate seat could be ripe for a Republican pickup if current polling trends hold. Former GOP Governor Chris Sununu, who remains highly popular in the state, has long teased a potential run for the soon-to-be vacant seat.
A recent poll from Quantus Insights—one of the most accurate firms during the 2024 presidential election—shows former Governor Chris Sununu holding a commanding nine-point lead over Rep. Chris Pappas in a hypothetical Senate matchup. According to the survey, 53 percent of respondents back Sununu, while only 44 percent support Pappas. With Pappas now officially entering the Senate race, the Democratic National Committee faces a new challenge: defending New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District from a potential Republican pickup. The seat, rated D+2 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, is already considered competitive—and without the advantage of incumbency, it becomes an even more attractive target for Republicans in the upcoming cycle.
The Democratic Party’s challenges in New Hampshire may extend beyond Pappas, as freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) is reportedly weighing a Senate run of her own. While she has yet to officially enter the race, Goodlander has been holding a series of town hall events across the state to test the waters, according to a report from local outlet Valley News.
Goodlander’s district reflects the partisan lean of Pappas’, with a D+2 Cook PVI rating, and has been identified as a potential target for flipping by the NRCC. Last month, Axios reported that the prospect of vulnerable Democrats leaving their current seats to seek higher office has Democratic Party leaders nervous.“The worst outcome for Jeffries would be multiple House departures for a single Senate seat,” one Capitol Hill source told the outlet.