A pro-Israel lobbying group could be gearing up to challenge Minnesota Democratic “Squad” member Ilhan Omar ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to a report late last week.
A recent poll distributed to constituents in Omar’s district bears the signature characteristics of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) political strategy, The Intercept reported.
Sent out earlier this month, the survey began with standard campaign-style questions, gauging initial impressions. It asked voters to assess both positive and negative aspects of Omar and Ryan Winkler, a Democrat and former Minnesota state representative, based on typical political issues, such as Omar’s voting record on affordable housing and healthcare, and Winkler’s stance on matters like the minimum wage and private prison reform.
Then the poll revealed its true focus, the report said.
In a section labeled “statements critics might make about Ilhan Omar,” it characterized her as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress,” highlighted her vote against a resolution condemning the October 7 attacks for omitting references to Palestinian civilian casualties, and noted her opposition to arms sales to Israel.
Respondents were then asked to rate how concerned they felt after hearing this information, said the report.
Then it asked respondents whether Winkler being supported by “a right-wing, pro-Israel group that is funded by Trump-supporting billionaires and has endorsed dozens of Republican members of Congress who support Trump and his MAGA agenda” raises any concerns.
Screenshots of the survey reviewed by The Intercept did not reveal who commissioned the poll. However, political strategists familiar with AIPAC’s tactics view the poll as a likely indication that the group is preparing to target Rep. Ilhan Omar in next year’s midterm elections.
AIPAC commonly begins its involvement by testing the political landscape through polling before formally committing to a race. By gauging voter reactions to Winkler, even after describing him as backed by a “right-wing, pro-Israel group,” implicitly referencing AIPAC, the organization can assess whether their support would be a liability in the district and how much effort would be needed to shift public opinion if that association is initially viewed unfavorably.
“This is absolutely what they do,” Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, a left-wing organization that has backed candidates who are critical of U.S. military support for Israel, including Omar, told The Intercept.
“They come into these districts early and poll the candidates they’ve already been talking to, that they’re already interested in, which in this case is seemingly Ryan Winkler, so they can take it back to their donors and ask for millions of dollars,” he said. “This is absolutely their playbook.”
A source familiar with the race, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed to The Intercept that AIPAC is preparing to actively target Rep. Ilhan Omar in the upcoming election cycle. According to the source, multiple contacts have indicated that AIPAC has been in discussions with Ryan Winkler, who is reportedly waiting on the results of an AIPAC-commissioned poll before deciding whether to enter the race.
The survey marks the first public indication that AIPAC remains focused on unseating progressive members of Congress who have criticized U.S. military aid to Israel and raised concerns about Israeli human rights practices in Palestine. In the last election cycle, AIPAC spent over $100 million on primary races, including more than $25 million targeting Squad members Reps. Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, both of whom were defeated by Democratic primary opponents.
That spending came through both the United Democracy Project and AIPAC’s traditional political action committee, AIPAC PAC. During the 2020 cycle, AIPAC endorsed more than 100 Republican lawmakers who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, The Intercept noted further.
“Our district has never been for sale. Special interest groups, including AIPAC, have spent millions trying to unseat me,” Omar told the outlet.